AI-powered calibration engine that systematically identifies and exploits pricing inefficiencies in prediction markets. Validated on 3,299 Polymarket events across sports, economy, politics, and crypto.
"One Battle After Another" for Best Picture — Murmur predicted 82% while the market was at 74%. The film won 6 awards.
Most predictions need only Layer 1. The deeper layers activate for high-value markets where alpha is largest.
Corrects systematic biases in crowd pricing. Markets overestimate long-shots (behavioral economics 101). We exploit this with statistical calibration trained on historical resolution data.
Blends live price data, volume dynamics, and domain-specific models. For commodities: current price vs. threshold distance. For sports: market efficiency detection.
LLM-powered deep analysis with news search and domain knowledge. Activated for high-value, low-liquidity markets where crowd wisdom breaks down — like Oscar categories or niche politics.
What we've learned from 3,299 prediction markets
Events priced 20-50% by the market happen less often than implied. Simple calibration correction captures most of our edge.
DraftKings and Vegas smart money already arbitrage sports markets to near-perfection. We trust the market here — knowing what NOT to predict is alpha.
Niche markets (Oscar categories, science questions, exotic politics) have the widest mispricings. Context enrichment shines here.